The wrong player.

A-Rod gets the nod over Ortiz by a slim margin, his second overall since winning with last place Texas. Apparently most writers are old school and feel that the DH position doesn’t merit the award. But, at least 11 writers (first place votes) thought that his accomplishments far exceeded his position. But, here’s the kicker – if Ortiz had played half the year at first, even horribly, this race wouldn’t have been close (see Don Baylor). This award has always been about offense, not defense (see Canseco). Today’s ESPN poll of 90,000+ participants, over 55% thought Ortiz should win. What it really comes down to is which team suffers more if you remove the player. Ortiz performed far better & won more games then A-Rod in the clutch. How many games did A-Rod win with his glove? Nuff said…

FREE AGENCY:

Friday marked the first day that teams lost exclusive negotiating rights with their free agents. It’s been fairly quiet across baseball, and not much info is floating out there yet. Here’s a few tidbits:

Manny – reports are saying Sox must be bowled over with an offer to move him. With no one team apparently in that position, it will take 3 teams to get involved. Most think he will stay in Boston.

Damon – report leaked that the Sox had extended an offer, and most assume it was to Damon. Sox are thought to be aggressive going after him. They almost have to be, as his agent, Boras, loves to drag negotiations on. If they wait to long, it could interfere with other needs or trades (Manny).  Yanks apparently were quoted 7yrs for $84M – too high of a price for their liking…

Nomar – Cubs reportedly have asked him to look elsewhere. Injuries have been decimating & humbling. Sox would be crazy not to offer him a job at 2nd. An incentive based contract, based on health, for one year until he proves himself (to go back out on open market). Won’t hurt to have Pedroia start in AAA or platoon. That is, if he can get past the trade. Can you imagine Fenway if he steps up to the plate? Wow. May solve part of offensive issue if Manny is dealt…

Well folks, here’s the first installment of the Hot Stove season. Not too much going on, unless of course you look internally. Now that the initial Theo shock has worn off, we press on and look at the external goings on. Management is sending their own "Rat Pack" into the GM meetings this week. While Cherington, Hoyer, Shipley, & Woodfork don’t have the cache of Frank & the boys, they should have the necessary seasoning & understanding of the system. Let’s hope GM by committee has more success than closer by committee did. At least they haven’t rushed the GM position…

Teams have until Nov 10th to sign their respective players, otherwise they hit the open free agent market. On to the latest news…

Mike Timlin – recently signed a one year deal with Sox for a reported $3.5M

Manny Ramirez: 3 way trade with Arizona / Angels has been shot down. Sox would have received 3B Glaus, 1B Erstad, and prospects. Shouldn’t do deal unless stud pitcher is involved.

Sounds like the Mets rumors are back on involving Mike Cameron (still damaged from last year?), and 2 of their 3 top prospects. This would also impact re-signing Damon. Look for a third team once again if this is going to happen.

David Wells: Asked for trade to left coast. Apparently tired of east coast spotlight. Born & raised in San Diego, rumored to have purchased a house there recently. Early indications point to Sox not satisfied with potential players, including young starter & solid relief.

Johnny Damon: Has stated he wants big contract consisting of at least 5 years. That’s a tall request for someone who will be 37 in the final year of that deal. His agent Scott Boras floated 4yrs & $50m out there. Look for Sox to make a strong push to get him re-signed.

Paul Konerko: Rumors indicate he prefers not to be on east coast. Apparently told teammates during ALDS that he would not come to Boston. Money has a way of changing things.

Bill Mueller: Sox plan to speak with his agent. Can’t imagine them letting Youkilis spend another year in utility role. They will have to trade him or play him if they keep Mueller. Look for Billy in a Twins uni in 06.

Kevin Millar: Recent reports have him doubting a return to Boston. Apparently O’s & Twins have some interest.

BJ Ryan: Most coveted reliever on market. Sox would love to have him, but Yanks will probably overpay to get him.

AJ Burnett: Most coveted starter on the market. Someone other than the Sox will overpay. He still has "potential" tag stuck to him. Left Florida on bad terms as well..

Hello gang. Here’s a quick look at where the Yanks stand and what they need this offseason. It’s been since Year 2000 and now close to a billion dollars since they last won it all. Heck, it seems like T-rex was stomping around the last time they won it. Speaking of old, it’s an aging team combined with one of the thinnest free agent markets in recent memory, so they have a ton of work to do this offseason. The only stability they have is now at GM & a revamped coaching staff. The farm system has been depleted the last couple years, and doesn’t have much talent above single A ball. Cashman will have to get creative to pull off any significant trades…

Catcher:

Posada – will be 35, hit .258 and power #’s down. Definitely on the back 9, Big Unit still won’t pitch to him Backup? Future? Big issue if Posada goes down, or skills disintegrate.

1B / DH:

Giambi – will be 35, "rebounded" to hit .271, 32HR, 87RBI. Who knows what you get next season – roid / HGH effects. Full time DH in 2006? Definite in 2007…

Tino – will be 39, no telling if he comes back. Had a brief power spurt, but only hit .243

Sierra – will be 41, #’s way down, will be a cheap option Hold on with platoon guys until prospect Eric Duncan is ready in 2 seasons?

2B:

Cano had solid rookie season. Should be long term option.

SS:

Jeter – will be 32, hit .308 but power #’s down. Could be start of decline, but still has a few years left

3B:

A-Rod – will be 31, had MVP caliber season. Will be OK if he gets gambling under control

Utility: Need to pick up 1B & infield backup – most likely vets on back 9 of career

RF:

Sheffield – will be 38, had solid 2005 #’s, but age and injury history bound to catch up soon

Outfield:

Crosby – will be 30, backup duty at most, will be shocked if given start in CF

Lawton – huge disappointment at trade deadline, now suspended for roids. Not much impact in 06.

Free Agency:

Bernie – probably won’t be back – already have cheaper options with same stats / short money

Matsui – will be 32, must re-sign. No better options out there but he won’t be cheap.

Damon – biggest name free agent on market. Will be 32 & wants at least 5 years. Yanks will have to offer 6yrs & more money than Sox.

Giles – will be 35, power #’s OK but declining. Still significant upgrade over Bernie. May force Matsui into CF which weakens defense. Teams will run on Matsui in center.

Trade: (rumored)

Milton Bradley – hit .290 but only 13HR, 38RBI’s, some injury history & what a head case. Good luck with this one…

Relief:

Rivera – will be 37, had great 2005. Age has to catch up to him at some point. Doesn’t it?

Small – will be 35, now with his 15th major league team. Don’t expect repeat of last season. There is a reason Torre kept taking him in & out of the rotation. He’s bullpen bound in 06.

Free Agency:

BJ Ryan – had solid 2005, best reliever on market (outside of closers). Yanks will have to overpay with several teams in bidding war. They’ll get him, but they’ll pay.

Sturtze – had subpar 2005 with 4.7 ERA. Others: Good luck. Worst crop in a while – topping last year’s list. Guys like Gordon, Guardado, Mesa, Urbina all want to close, not be setup guys behind Rivera.

Starters:

Big Unit – will be 43. Ouch. Mediocre 2005. Back problems persist, no cartiledge left in one knee. Worst season in years, should have stayed in NL. Don’t look for much improvement, will probably see #2 type numbers at best.

Mussina – will be 38. 13 wins & 4.4 ERA is respectable, but not for a #2 making $20M. Age & injuries will continue to follow him. Can’t stay healthy the entire season.

Chacon – will be 29. Yanks most consistent starter, pitched well in 2005. Still only a solid #4 or fringe #3 guy.

Wang – will be 26. Solid rookie season with 4.1 ERA, could be potential #3 guy. Not a good sign when your rookie pitcher is out 2 months with a strained shoulder. Can’t be too optomistic with the youngest pitcher on the staff spending significant time on the DL.

Pavano – will be 30. Very mediocre 4-6, 4.7ERA performance. Still has the "potential" tag, with career losing record & 4.3ERA. Don’t expect a breakout season with "new" rotator cuff injury. Not sure how mentally stable he is. Already mentioned in trade rumors to Seattle.

Wright – will be 31. Bounced back from horrific start, but turned into a ball magnet. Based on injury history, any success will be short lived.

Free Agency:

AJ Burnett – best pitcher on market. Will command high dollars, but stuck with same "potential" label as Pavano. His early Florida exit may be warning sign he can’t handle the pressure, and there’s plenty in NY.

Matsuzaka – plays for Japanese league’s Seibu Lions. On a few teams radar, exceptional talent apparently. Doesn’t have permission to leave, but still hired Scott Boras as agent. Long shot at this point.

Bottom Line:

Overall, not much change coming to the everyday lineup. Big question marks are CF, mid relief, and the starters. As proven again this season, pitching wins in Oct.

Their lineup will be fine, with some depth needed at catcher and outfield. But the starters are OLD and injury prone. Not one guy on the staff has made all their starts. Big Unit is no longer the true Ace he was even in 2004. Mid relief will probably be their achilles heel in 06. Other than BJ Ryan, the free agent crop is thin, and teams will be reluctant to part with any arms – especially effective ones. Cashman will need to be very creative, especially with an immature farm system.

The current Yanks payroll is just shy of $170M even with the loss of multiple big contracts (Bernie, Kevin Brown, etc). Money obviously isn’t an issue. But, between CF ($7M-11M), Matsui ($10M), BJ Ryan ($6M), possibly AJ Burnett ($11M) & dead money ($5M – via trades), you’re looking at $210M. Just obscene.  But there’s still not enough pitching. The drought will continue in NY…

The loss of Theo is the first misstep the organization has taken.  The proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back came in the form of an article written by Dan Shaughnessy of the

Boston

Globe (here’s the article).  Basically it revealed some of the more intimate details of the working relationship between Theo & Lucchino, as well as details of what Theo assumed to be private.  There was no question in Theo’s mind that Lucchino had leaked the story to his friend Shaughnessy, aka the curly haired boyfriend.  Not to mention that the Globe “coincidentally” owns a 17% stake in the Sox.

The article calls into question Theo’s role and how there was hand holding going on during his development.  Then he drones on about how Theo’s “minions” have been doing more talking than Sox management.  Please.  The story was “leaked” directly by Lucchino.  Shaughnessy indirectly works for the Sox.  You have to take what is reported with a grain of salt, or at least grasp the point of view of the writer.

What it comes down to is that the ego of Lucchino came before a business decision.  He would rather put a media spin on this to ensure people think he has the upper hand.  It backfired.  There was no need to massage the fans.  The perception was positive.  This was all about Larry.  Theo knew in his heart he couldn’t trust the person he was working for any longer.  Now the Sox have lost one of baseball’s rising stars.  Theo grew up a mile from the park, had a better grasp of the dynamics than anyone, and was destined to run this team for years.

Who’s ultimately to blame?  Lucchino?  Absolutely.  His EGO has taken its first victim in his tenure.  Even mild-mannered guys like Peter Gammons have become harsh towards

Boston

because of him.

Shaughnessy?  He’s a *****, plain and simple.  Some folks in the media say they would have done the story if leaked to them.  Point is they are no better.  You should be held accountable regardless.  All he cares about is the story, not the effects of it.  In today’s column, he says “Blame me if it makes you feel better”.  Well we do blame you, it doesn’t make us feel better, and we’re not buying the “BS” as you try to cover yourself.  Stop being evasive and own up to it.  You screwed up.  You let yourself be used.  You should be ashamed.  But when you’ve been on your back as many times as he has, there’s no conscience, no regrets, and no integrity left.  Lets hope Karma makes an appearance sooner rather than later…